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What if I have to predict about French Presidential Elections 2017?

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Democracy is considered as an ideal tool to rule and run any country or province. It is the government of the people, by the people and for the people as said by the Former US president in his famous Gettysburg Address speech in 1893. However, the tables are turning in the 21st century, and the democracy is no longer same as our ancestors had imagined. The exceptional sweep by Mr Donald Trump in 2016 US elections, have defined some new meanings of democracy, and the curious question lies in the hearts and minds of people across the world is: will 2017 French Presidential Elections be a game changer in the French politics or it will only repeat what is happening in a so called democratic country like America.

If you are crazy enough to think that you can trust the exit polls altogether, let me tell you, you should not.

After the incidents like US presidential elections and Brexit, it is not wise to trust exit polls altogether. The problem with polls is that people sometimes don’t convey what their hearts tell them.

The fall of François Fillon:

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Until December, there were only two strong participants in the French Presidential race- François Fillon and Marine Le Pen. Well, things did not turn out well for François Fillon due to some serious accusations to him like securing a fake job for his wife and children with public money (around 800000 €). Also, recently, he was accused of forgetting to declare to the HATVP (High Authority for Public Life Transparency) a 50000 € loan granted to a billionaire friend to whom he gave the Légion d’Honneur when he was at the government. The chances of François Fillon to win the elections dramatically fall from 66% to 19% in recent polls and a name which Marine Le Pen should (?) take seriously is no more François Fillon, but Emmanuel Macron.

Emmanuel Macron:

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The recent polls predict that Emmanuel Macron will win the elections against Marine Le Pen with 60-40% margins. However, as I said above, you cannot trust polls completely as Le Pen has more than 15 years of experience in the active politics compared to Macron’s mere five years.

The world seems to accept extreme Right wing ideologies (India, US elections and Brexit). In this political scenario, the chances of winning the right thinking are high.

Also, we should not forget that most of the voters prefer a good and direct orator and Emmanuel Macron has this quality. If you have seen his recent debates, you must have noticed his consistency, direct approach, excellent debating tactics and innovative ideas.

Also, he listens what his opponent has to say, and that is something commendable. He won his first debate with flying colours and had qualities to appeal the mass. He may win huge acceptance among voters, especially liberals.

However, there are some serious issues associated with Macron, and one of the main problems is his unjustified attempt to transpartisan. In his speeches, he tries to please right wingers and left wingers and ends up angering both. A recent example- You must have heard his views about gay issue in the recent speech.

Marine Le Pen: a firebrand right-wing idealist:

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Though you must have read about her a lot nowadays and some of you might hate her, but she very well knows that pulse of the public and has an enormous political experience to help her out. She is an outspoken, excellent orator and a hardcore anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim. You can compare her with the US current President Donald Trump who has already started taking decisive steps against Muslims and illegal immigrants. Marine Le Pen has seen and studied French Politics carefully and knows how it functions. When she became a leader of the Front National, she sidelined her own father and supporters and reached out to mostly untouched communities like LGBT, women and religious minorities like the Jewish community by softening her party ideologies.

She speaks firmly in debates, whether it is about leaving the European Union or reducing the immigration or going back to the France Franc as currency. Her voters come from diverse backgrounds and races. If you have seen exit polls closely, you must have noticed that Le Pen’s voting margins are not fluctuating like others in spite of her political and financial scandals. She clearly has sounds and loyal voters, and this is the most important thing for her to win.

Mélanchon

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Then comes Mélanchon, he came a long way, and he might get the votes from the indecisive and pass the first round. He appeals to the youth and has his loyal and sound crew as well. However, who would be against him???? Le Pen? This would mean that we will have to pick between the two extreme political parties and this is the scariest thing that could happen in our elections. Knowing my Frenchies, it is not an option to joke on… It’s entirely plausible to my point of view.

Voters, the final deciders

Sunday is coming fast (D -2) and it is not worth to predict what the French people think.

And I apparently feel like these votes will be led by 4 categories of voters:

  • The intellectuals: they swing votes depending on the political programme offered by the candidates, they traditionally vote right or left wing. Their decision is purely a question of opportunity. What’s right for them and their families?
  • The Passionate Swingers: former loyal voters, mostly from the French middle class, fed up with the traditional parties. Former loyal voters, they swing their votes over the last few years, voting now for extremes in desperate need for solutions for the country.
  • The Loyals: supporters who are always voting for the same political party. They believe in parties and not in ideas. They will never vote outside their party whoever is in charge.
  • The Indecisives: they are the most volatile obviously. They think too much. They will probably make their decision on the day. They might even not vote at all. They could vote for anyone including the Extremes. They are sick and tired of the current politics and after being former Loyals and maybe former Intellectuals, they are deeply concerned about the future of their country and want to try something else. They will either vote with their heart & gut or not at all or only between the two final candidates.

I can’t wait to be voting this coming Sunday. It would be interesting to see who French people choose. Whoever leads and takes over the seat, Intellectuals, Swingers, Indecisives and LOyals, we all hope that the new president will work for the betterment of the people and be caring for the hard-hitting issues, France is facing right now.

Frenchie

XoXo

French Election Coverage: Meet Fillon, (Part 3) D-23

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François Charles Amand Fillon was one of the most promising names when it came to French politics, and he was the former prime minister of France who served from 2007 to 2012 and currently he is the presidential candidate from the Republican party of France. He has years of experience in handling some of the key portfolios in French government like education minister and labour minister and ecology and sustainable development minister in different regimes.

FACTS:

–    His wife is Welsh from Llanover, near Abergavenny.

–    They have five children

–    They live a 12th-Century manor house near Le Mans in western France

PRESIDENTIAL RACE:

He was considered as a third when he nominated himself for the 2016 Republic Presidential Primary, and in a week’s time, he was the favourite candidate from the Republican Party when Alain Juppé supported him after the run-off on 27 November 2016. In the months of November and December 2016, he was the frontrunner for the presidential election of 2017, but the series of disclosures of political scandals which burst to its paroxysm today seem to ruin his chances suddenly went to the backseat in the presidential elections.

François Fillon has always denied and has refused to step aside for another candidate, complaining instead that he was the victim of a “political assassination” and added, “if investigation reports prove me guilty, I will leave the presidential election.”

Two of the most efficient and renowned exist polls Ifop, and BVA has suggested that he will be thrown out by the people in the first round of elections that will be held in April 2017. According to sources, even his party members from Les Républicains party are against him and put pressure on him to leave the presidential candidacy since the allegations were made public by the leading newspaper Le Canard Enchaîné.

It will be interesting to see the results in the first round of the election and the time will tell whether people accepts François Fillon or not. If he loses the elections, it may be the end of his political career.

IMPORTANT POINTS OF HIS POLITICAL PLANS:

–    cutting half a million public sector jobs, scrapping the 35-hour work week and remove the wealth tax (ISF).

–    He wants to strip jihadists returning from the wars in Iraq or Syria of their French nationality

–    Require parents in receipt of social allowances to agree to a “parental responsibility contract”, to tackle children’s absenteeism or behaviour “disrespectful of the values of the French republic”.

–    Fillon wants to engage with Russia by lifting EU sanctions and help Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to defeat the Islamic State (IS).

 

WHAT HAVE THE FILLONS DONE WRONG?

Nothing, say Francois Fillon and his wife, who insist everything was above board. But prosecutors have decided there is sufficient evidence to open a full judicial inquiry into abuse of public funds and on 15 March the examining magistrate is expected to place him under formal investigation.

The question is: did Penelope Fillon do the work she was paid for? Satirical weekly Le Canard Enchaîné alleged in late January that she did not – and got €831,400 (£710,000; $900,000) for her trouble.

She was employed as her husband’s parliamentary assistant from 1988-90 and again in 1998-2002 and then by his successor, Marc Jouland, from 2002-2007.

She worked again for Mr Fillon from 2012-13. That is all very well if she did the work, but one report suggests she did not have a parliamentary pass or a work email.

According to Le Canard Enchaîné, she also pocketed €100,000 for writing just a handful of articles for a literary review La Revue des Deux Mondes, owned by a billionaire friend of the family, Marc Ladreit de Lacharriere.

Today, Penelope Fillon was officially charged with embezzlement of public funds, a coup de grace for Fillon’s election himself charged earlier this month! These elections couldn’t be more exciting and uncertain.

DID YOU KNOW?

Marine Le Pen is also under investigation for allegedly using European Parliament staff allowances to pay for FN party employees, including a personal bodyguard.

WHAT THE FRENCHIES THINK OF THIS WHOLE ORDEAL?

900 000 Euros dans la poche de fillon?, ok, c’est pas cher à payer par rapport à ce que Hollande et sa clique nous ont fait perdre et nous fera perdre Macron et son programme qui n’a aucun sens et je ne parle même pas de MLP. Fillon est la seule alternative.

900 000 Euros in Fillon’s pocket ?, ok, it is acceptable compared to what Holland and his clique have made us lose and will make us lose with Macron and its program that makes no sense, and I do not speak even about MLP. Fillon is the only alternative.

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Ce que cet article ne dit pas:

Si Penelope Fillon est mise en examen par les juges d’instruction, ceux-ci, par contre, ont enfreint les lois de procédure pénale:

– ils n’ont instruit qu’à charge;

– ils n’ont pas tenu compte de la présomption d’innocence;

– enfin, ils n’ont pas respecté la séparation des pouvoirs (mais là, depuis Mitterrand, la France a l’habitude, au plus grand étonnement, d’ailleurs, des démocraties européennes).

Qui dira encore que la Justice française dans le cas présent est absolument impartiale et politiquement indépendante???

What this article does not say:
If Penelope Fillon is under investigation by the investigating judges, they, on the other hand, have infringed the laws of criminal procedure:
They have instructed only on charges;
– they did not take into account the presumption of innocence;
– finally, they have not respected the separation of powers (but since Mitterrand, France is accustomed, to the greatest astonishment, moreover, of the other European democracies).
Who will say that the French Justice, in this case, is absolutely impartial and politically independent ???

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Demander a Cahuzac, Tevennoud, …

Ensuite mise en examen ne veut pas dire condamnée!

Ask this to Cahuzac, Tevennoud, …
Then indictment does not mean condemned!

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C’est émouvant le jusqu’au boutisme acharné des fillonistes……

Malheureusement la prévarication, l’enrichissement personnel la malhonnêteté et le clientélisme de Monsieur Fillon sont dorénavant connus de tous.

It is moving how the hard line attitude of Fillon’s fan can go …
Unfortunately, the prevarication, the personal enrichment the dishonesty and the clientelism of Mr Fillon are henceforth known to all.

***

Les emplois fictifs dans le privé n’ont rien d’illégaux. Des individus au placard dans les grands groupes il y en a des centaines. Dans les années 90 la société qui m’employait , et dont l’Etat était actionnaire, a été contrainte d’accepter l’embauche d’un ami du ministre de l’industrie au sein de son état major . Ce type ne foutait rien et était grassement payé. Et ça a duré 4 ans .

The fictitious jobs in the private sector are not illegal. There are hundreds of individuals in the closet in large groups. In the 90s the company that employed me, and whose state was a major shareholder, was forced to accept the hiring of a friend of the Minister of Industry within his staff. This guy did not give a damn and was well paid to do nothing; it lasted four years.

Sacré French 🙂