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What if I have to predict about French Presidential Elections 2017?

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Democracy is considered as an ideal tool to rule and run any country or province. It is the government of the people, by the people and for the people as said by the Former US president in his famous Gettysburg Address speech in 1893. However, the tables are turning in the 21st century, and the democracy is no longer same as our ancestors had imagined. The exceptional sweep by Mr Donald Trump in 2016 US elections, have defined some new meanings of democracy, and the curious question lies in the hearts and minds of people across the world is: will 2017 French Presidential Elections be a game changer in the French politics or it will only repeat what is happening in a so called democratic country like America.

If you are crazy enough to think that you can trust the exit polls altogether, let me tell you, you should not.

After the incidents like US presidential elections and Brexit, it is not wise to trust exit polls altogether. The problem with polls is that people sometimes don’t convey what their hearts tell them.

The fall of François Fillon:

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Until December, there were only two strong participants in the French Presidential race- François Fillon and Marine Le Pen. Well, things did not turn out well for François Fillon due to some serious accusations to him like securing a fake job for his wife and children with public money (around 800000 €). Also, recently, he was accused of forgetting to declare to the HATVP (High Authority for Public Life Transparency) a 50000 € loan granted to a billionaire friend to whom he gave the Légion d’Honneur when he was at the government. The chances of François Fillon to win the elections dramatically fall from 66% to 19% in recent polls and a name which Marine Le Pen should (?) take seriously is no more François Fillon, but Emmanuel Macron.

Emmanuel Macron:

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The recent polls predict that Emmanuel Macron will win the elections against Marine Le Pen with 60-40% margins. However, as I said above, you cannot trust polls completely as Le Pen has more than 15 years of experience in the active politics compared to Macron’s mere five years.

The world seems to accept extreme Right wing ideologies (India, US elections and Brexit). In this political scenario, the chances of winning the right thinking are high.

Also, we should not forget that most of the voters prefer a good and direct orator and Emmanuel Macron has this quality. If you have seen his recent debates, you must have noticed his consistency, direct approach, excellent debating tactics and innovative ideas.

Also, he listens what his opponent has to say, and that is something commendable. He won his first debate with flying colours and had qualities to appeal the mass. He may win huge acceptance among voters, especially liberals.

However, there are some serious issues associated with Macron, and one of the main problems is his unjustified attempt to transpartisan. In his speeches, he tries to please right wingers and left wingers and ends up angering both. A recent example- You must have heard his views about gay issue in the recent speech.

Marine Le Pen: a firebrand right-wing idealist:

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Though you must have read about her a lot nowadays and some of you might hate her, but she very well knows that pulse of the public and has an enormous political experience to help her out. She is an outspoken, excellent orator and a hardcore anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim. You can compare her with the US current President Donald Trump who has already started taking decisive steps against Muslims and illegal immigrants. Marine Le Pen has seen and studied French Politics carefully and knows how it functions. When she became a leader of the Front National, she sidelined her own father and supporters and reached out to mostly untouched communities like LGBT, women and religious minorities like the Jewish community by softening her party ideologies.

She speaks firmly in debates, whether it is about leaving the European Union or reducing the immigration or going back to the France Franc as currency. Her voters come from diverse backgrounds and races. If you have seen exit polls closely, you must have noticed that Le Pen’s voting margins are not fluctuating like others in spite of her political and financial scandals. She clearly has sounds and loyal voters, and this is the most important thing for her to win.

Mélanchon

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Then comes Mélanchon, he came a long way, and he might get the votes from the indecisive and pass the first round. He appeals to the youth and has his loyal and sound crew as well. However, who would be against him???? Le Pen? This would mean that we will have to pick between the two extreme political parties and this is the scariest thing that could happen in our elections. Knowing my Frenchies, it is not an option to joke on… It’s entirely plausible to my point of view.

Voters, the final deciders

Sunday is coming fast (D -2) and it is not worth to predict what the French people think.

And I apparently feel like these votes will be led by 4 categories of voters:

  • The intellectuals: they swing votes depending on the political programme offered by the candidates, they traditionally vote right or left wing. Their decision is purely a question of opportunity. What’s right for them and their families?
  • The Passionate Swingers: former loyal voters, mostly from the French middle class, fed up with the traditional parties. Former loyal voters, they swing their votes over the last few years, voting now for extremes in desperate need for solutions for the country.
  • The Loyals: supporters who are always voting for the same political party. They believe in parties and not in ideas. They will never vote outside their party whoever is in charge.
  • The Indecisives: they are the most volatile obviously. They think too much. They will probably make their decision on the day. They might even not vote at all. They could vote for anyone including the Extremes. They are sick and tired of the current politics and after being former Loyals and maybe former Intellectuals, they are deeply concerned about the future of their country and want to try something else. They will either vote with their heart & gut or not at all or only between the two final candidates.

I can’t wait to be voting this coming Sunday. It would be interesting to see who French people choose. Whoever leads and takes over the seat, Intellectuals, Swingers, Indecisives and LOyals, we all hope that the new president will work for the betterment of the people and be caring for the hard-hitting issues, France is facing right now.

Frenchie

XoXo

French Election coverage: Meet Marine Le Pen (Part 1) – D – 28

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As the French presidential elections becoming the talk of South Kensington, there are many speculations, and polls from agencies, reporters and news channels across the world are making predictions. The leader of the Right National Front Party, Mrs Marine Le Pen is considered as one of the most potential candidates, and here, we have tried to give our readers some crucial facts that can help them to know more about her.

• Her full real name is Marion Anne Perrine Le Pen
• At the beginning of her career as a lawyer, she volunteered for immediate summary trials. In this context, she is led to defend a foreigner in an irregular situation and ironically wins these cases 8 times out of 10.
• She’d been known for being a party animal for years; she inherited of the nickname of “lofteuse” French slang for a party animal.
• Five years ago, she took over the party from her father, and the founder of the Front National Party Jean-Marie Le Pen and she has inherited politics from him. She has started attending FN meetings at the age of 13 along with her father, and it has shaped her political career to a great extent.
• A comedian known for making Nazi-evocative gesture “La Quenelle” is a big fan of Marine and the National Front.

Don’t be complacent… We’ve seen with Trump’s victory in the USA that today everything’s possible. People are not trusting the traditional media influences and articles anymore. They look way further and try to understand in their own way the world. Demonising a politician is not anymore a way to eliminate and bury him from the politic scene anymore!

Secularism is threatened by the very presence of Islam which has become the first practised religion of France, enough to scare the working and middle classes.

The immigration issue and fear from immigrants, especially Muslims (again!) and the current antipathy in EU has put forward Marine Le Pen.

All in all, France’s reality today is immigration, terrorism, insecurity, …

The French are scared, so afraid that the taboo of a far-right presidency no longer holds in France and her 144 commitments to the French People, Le Pen has promised the following:

• She will protect France from globalisation and reduce taxes and enhance welfare payments for working class.
• Also, she has announced that she will make the procedure of becoming a French citizen tough and deport all the illegal immigrants from the country.
• Hold a referendum to revise the Constitution
• Restore the automatic expulsion of foreign criminals and offenders. Establish bilateral agreements that allow sentenced foreigners to serve their sentences in their countries of origin.
• Make it impossible to regularise or naturalise illegal foreigners. Simplify and automate their expulsion.
• Permanently pave all public buildings of the French flag and remove the European flag.
• She had welcomed the exit of the Britain from the European Union and promised that Frexit is next if she comes in power.

Her political programme seems to reassure the people, and according to some polls and election experts, she is most probably going to be in the final round of the presidential elections in May.

The world is changing….

Frenchie
The first round of presidential elections will be held in France on April 22. In case no party wins the majority, two candidates with highest votes will contest for the second round on May 6.

French Attitude toward Le Pen

J’adhère à 1000% car pour devenir français, il faut le mériter!!!
beaucoup prennent la nationalité française pour bénéficier des avantages,?
Qui peuplent nos prisons ?
On voit ce qui se passe avec les attentats, ce sont pour beaucoup des français d’origne…..
OUI au FN

I adhere to (Le Pen’s political views) 1000% because to become French, you have to deserve !!!
Many take French citizenship to enjoy the benefits?
Who populate our prisons?
We see what happens with the terrorist attacks, they are for many French people.
YES to the FN

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Je ne suis pas contre l’idée mais qui décide si machin ou truc est méritant ou pas, et selon quels critères ? Elle a précisé quelque chose à ce sujet ? Parce que c’est là que ça devient intéressant!

I am not against the idea (of toughening the procedure of becoming a French citizen ) but who decides whether or not X or Y deserve the citizenship, and according to what criteria? Did she say something about that? Because that’s where it gets interesting!

Le pen continue le business du père de gagner des sous en participant aux élections mais sans se faire élire.Fillon est un corrompu mais qui fait dans l’artisanat local alors macron fait dans la multinationale.

Le Pen continues her father’s business of winning pennies by participating in elections but without getting elected. Fillon is a corrupt and excels in local craftsmanship then Macron excels in the multinational.

A choisir entre Marine et Macron le menteur destructeur cynique et impitoyable.. il n’y a pas à hésiter !! C’est Marine . Avec Macron, c’est la mort et la misère assurée pour beaucoup de français et françaises.

Between Marine and Macron the cynical destructive ruthless liar  .. there is no hesitation !! It’s Marine. With Macron, it is death and misery assured for many French.

Moi ça me dérange qu’un pays étranger qui ne recherche que notre ruine et la destruction de l’Union Européenne finance un parti politique qui justement… prone le fin de l’Europe! D’autant plus quand ce pays n’est ni un ami ni une démocratie exemplaire, loin s’en faut, et qu’il fait déjà peur à tous ses voisins, dont certains sont membres… de l’Union Europénne! Ça a comme une odeur de haute trahison…

It disturbs me that a foreign country that only seeks our ruin and the destruction of the European Union finances a political party that precisely … want to the end Europe! Especially when this country is neither a friend nor an exemplary democracy, far from it, and that scares all its neighbors, some of which are members … of the European Union! It smells like high treason …